A Kind of Demand-Forecasting Model Based on Analysis of Demand Booming and Principle of NIve Forecasting

According to the principle characters of forecasting problems concerning some industries, such as hotels and car manufactories, a kind of quantitative demand forecasting model is proposed, which is based on the demand booming analysis and the na¨ve forecasting technology. Firstly the booming patterns of product are partitioned. Secondly, the best matching point on historical line of current status point is found out and whence the forecasting value of demand is computed. The relative concepts of the model and the corresponding algorithms are presented. Two application examples using practical data sets were introduced to test the forecasting performance of the model, which showed satisfactory forecasting accuracy.