Urban Ecological Economic Resilience in China: Spatio-Temporal Evolution, Influencing Factors, and Trend Prediction

This article adopted exploratory spatio-temporal data analysis (ESTDA), geographic detector, and spatial Markov chain model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, main influencing factors, and future trend predictions of urban ecological economic resilience (EER). The results show that EER has been significantly enhanced, and high-level cities have a “rhombus” spatial distribution pattern. EER has a noticeable spatial agglomeration effect and the range of high–high agglomeration areas has gradually expanded. The LISA time path reflects that the spatial structure of EER is relatively stable, and urban units and neighboring cities show a more apparent synergistic growth trend. Social development, economic support, ecological restoration, and innovation and transformation strongly influence the development of EER, and the interaction between factors is more significant. In the future, EER will still tend to maintain the existing stable and unchanged state, and cross-grade leapfrogging development will not be achieved.