A Revised Ground‐Motion Prediction Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Italy

Research Article| February 05, 2019 A Revised Ground‐Motion Prediction Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Italy Giovanni Lanzano; Giovanni Lanzano aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Lucia Luzi; Lucia Luzi aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Francesca Pacor; Francesca Pacor aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Chiara Felicetta; Chiara Felicetta aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Rodolfo Puglia; Rodolfo Puglia aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Sara Sgobba; Sara Sgobba aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Maria D'Amico Maria D'Amico aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Giovanni Lanzano aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Lucia Luzi aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Francesca Pacor aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Chiara Felicetta aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Rodolfo Puglia aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Sara Sgobba aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Maria D'Amico aIstituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Via Corti 12, 20133 Milan, Italy, giovanni.lanzano@ingv.it, lucia.luzi@ingv.it, francesca.pacor@ingv.it, chiara.felicetta@ingv.it, rodolfo.puglia@ingv.it, sara.sgobba@ingv.it, maria.damico@ingv.it Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 05 Feb 2019 Online Issn: 1943-3573 Print Issn: 0037-1106 © Seismological Society of America Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (2): 525–540. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180210 Article history First Online: 05 Feb 2019 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Giovanni Lanzano, Lucia Luzi, Francesca Pacor, Chiara Felicetta, Rodolfo Puglia, Sara Sgobba, Maria D'Amico; A Revised Ground‐Motion Prediction Model for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Italy. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 2019;; 109 (2): 525–540. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180210 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyBulletin of the Seismological Society of America Search Advanced Search Abstract This work aims to revise the Bindi et al. (2011) ground‐motion model for shallow crustal earthquakes in Italy (hereinafter, ITA10), calibrated in the magnitude range 4.0–6.9 using strong‐motion data recorded up to the 2009 L'Aquila sequence. The improvement of ITA10 is needed because of the large number of strong‐motion records made available in Italy after the occurrence of the most recent seismic sequences (2012 Emilia, Northern Italy; 2016–2017 Central Italy). The new data collection allows us to extend the magnitude range beyond 6.9 and to include vibration periods up to 10 s. Instead of the geometric mean of the horizontal components of ground motion, the median of orientation independent amplitudes (RotD50) is selected as a measure of the ground‐motion parameters, and the rupture distance is introduced as an alternative source‐to‐site metric to the Joyner–Boore distance (⁠RJB⁠). The site effects are accounted for by a linear dependence on the time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the upper 30 m, VS30⁠. A breakdown of the ground‐motion variability is performed into between‐event and site‐to‐site components to make the model suitable for the evaluation of nonergodic probabilistic seismic hazard. We also build a heteroscedastic model for aleatory variability as a function of moment magnitude and VS30⁠. The evaluation of the epistemic uncertainty in the median prediction is also provided to be introduced in the logic trees for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. We obtain changes in median predictions with respect to ITA10 at distances lower than 10 km and for strong events (⁠Mw>6.5⁠); moreover, the total standard deviations are significantly lower at intermediate and long periods, with an average reduction of about 20%. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.