Spatiotemporal variation of water balance components in Mashhad catchment, Iran: Investigating the impact of changes in climatic data and land use

Abstract The research aims to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of water balance components and distinguish the relative impacts of climatic data and land-use on groundwater level in northeastern Iran. This investigation employs the WetSpass-M model to estimate water balance and the Mann-Kendall test alongside Sen's slope estimator to evaluate trend. The study also assesses mean annual water balance components, considering diverse combinations of land-use and soil. The findings offer a hydrological insight, revealing that 14% of precipitation results in runoff, 29% of that recharging the aquifer; the remaining portion is lost through evapotranspiration. The trends in precipitation and simulated water components are not significant but a significant downward trend in groundwater is observed beyond a specific point in time. Based on this outcome, as well as the analysis of land-use changes, it was speculated that human activities in this fast-developing region might be implicated in the decline in groundwater levels. Analysis of water balance components in various soil and land-use combinations indicates that evapotranspiration exhibits greater variability within the land-cover class, while recharge is more influenced by soil texture. These findings enhance our understanding for identifying potential sites for artificial recharge and determining sustainable groundwater withdrawals based on spatiotemporal recharge patterns.