Operational Risk Assessment of Integrated Energy System Considering Probabilistic Multi-Energy Flow

During the development process of energy and electricity, the massive use of traditional fossil fuels has made the global environment and climate problems become increasingly serious, which promotes the development of integrated energy system. Due to the randomness of distributed generation output and load, the operation of integrated energy systems will face operational risks. In order to analyze operational risks, this paper establishes a risk assessment method for integrated energy systems based on probabilistic multi-energy flow. First, the source and load stochastic models of the integrated energy system are established. Then, a probabilistic multi-energy flow calculation method based on cumulant method is established, and random variable correlation is considered based on Cholesky decomposition and Nataf transformation. Finally, risk assessment indicators are established from the perspectives of operational safety and operational economy. The case study analysis shows that the method in this paper is effective.