A technical framework for integrating carbon emission peaking factors into the industrial green transformation planning of a city cluster in China

Under the dual policy targets of carbon emission peaking (CEP) and industrial green transformation (IGT) in China, where a top-down policy implementation is usually adopted, a more integrative planning mode needs to be constructed for greening industrial development. This paper proposes a technical framework to tackle the weakness faced when integrating IGT-associated issues with CEP factors during the development of IGT options, with an application in the Hohhot–Baotou–Ordos–Yulin (HBOY) city cluster. A CEP-IGT model was built to portray the effects of seven selected indicators on industrial carbon emissions, and help develop six options by defining the transformation strengths of HBOY's energy-intensive industrial system. Particularly, the CEP times and volumes were employed as the criteria for evaluating the IGT options. We found that the regional CEP goal will not be accomplished by even 2035 under the business-as-usual scenario. To halt the emission growth trend will rely much on the structural factors of energy mix and industrial output, which were also determinants of the IGT performance. Option 3, representing a moderate level transformation, was the preferred IGT plan, reaching a peak volume of 255.27 MtCO2eq·a−1 in 2026. The preferred plan will result in the replacement of at least 14% of the coal used in thermal power by renewable energy, and an increase in industrial coal-use efficiency by 32.02%. Policy measures need to be implemented to cap the total industrial coal consumption to no more than 2494 Mt and sustain an industrial growth by developing lower-energy or carbon-intensive industries. By 2030, the intensity and volume of industrial carbon emissions will reach 1.89 tCO2eq·10,000 CNY−1 and 224.85 MtCO2eq·a−1, respectively. This CEP-IGT progress will benefit the goal of being carbon neutral. As such, we concluded that this new framework will aid the IGT planning process, not only improving our understanding of the relationships between carbon emission control and industrial updating levels, but also presenting an integrative path for China's city clusters to promote green, low-carbon industrial development.