Command of Commerce

Abstract This book provides a systematic re-evaluation of the balance of economic power between the United States and China. The conventional wisdom is that China’s economic power is very close to America’s and that Washington cannot undertake a broad economic cutoff of China without hurting itself as much or more. This book demonstrates that the conventional wisdom is wrong on both fronts. In peacetime, America’s lead in economic power over China is more dramatic than commonly appreciated because the vast majority of the firms that drive global commerce, particularly in high-technology sectors, are based in the US and its allies. China’s economic capacity has also been overestimated because Beijing manipulates its economic data and because comparing China’s uniquely structured economy with other leading economies is challenging. These facts are necessary to understand why Washington has been able to target and undermine individual Chinese companies and even entire sectors in recent years while facing so little retaliation from Beijing. America’s advantage in economic power over China would be even more marked in wartime. Our analysis indicates that Washington could impose massive, disproportionate harm on Beijing if it were to impose a broad economic cutoff of China in cooperation with its allies or via a distant naval blockade. Across six scenarios, China’s short-term economic losses from a broad cutoff range from being 5 to 11 times higher than America’s. And in the long run, America and almost all its allies would return to previous economic growth levels; in contrast, China’s growth would be permanently degraded.