Artificial Neural Network Models for Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity: A Quantitative Structure Property Relationship Approach to Fuel Design

Abstract Octane sensitivity (OS), defined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its effect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially within advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS, requiring time, funding, and specialized equipment. Thus, predictive models trained with existing experimental data and molecular descriptors (via quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs)) would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. The present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained with QSPR descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS (derived octane sensitivity (dOS)), and using ANNs trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. Twenty-five ANNs were trained for both RON and MON and their test sets achieved an overall 6.4% and 5.2% error, respectively. Twenty-five additional ANNs were trained for both dOS and OS; dOS calculations were found to have 15.3% error while predicting OS directly resulted in 9.9% error. A chemical analysis of the top QSPR descriptors for RON/MON and OS is conducted, highlighting desirable structural features for high-performing molecules and offering insight into the inner mathematical workings of ANNs; such chemical interpretations study the interconnections between structural features, descriptors, and fuel performance showing that connectivity, structural diversity, and atomic hybridization consistently drive fuel performance.