Abstract P200: A Polygenic Risk Score Improves Prediction Of Lifetime Risk For Heart Failure

Introduction: Heart Failure (HF) has shared genetic architecture with its risk factors, including atrial fibrillation (AF), body mass index (BMI), coronary heart disease (CHD), systolic blood pressure (SBP), and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The risk prediction performance of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for those HF risk factors and HF itself over an established risk equation warrants investigation. Methods: Within the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, six PRSs were constructed for AF, BMI, CHD, SBP, T2D, and HF by summing the product of pre-computed weights from genome-wide association studies and SNP allele dosages in European and African Americans separately. The association between PRSs and incident HF was assessed using cox proportional hazard models, and the 10-, 20-, and 30-year risk prediction performance of PRS over the ARIC HF risk equation was assessed using C-statistics. Associations between AF PRS and HF subtypes, echocardiographic measures, and 4,877 proteins were examined. Results: Over 30 years follow-up, 1,922 (22%) and 735 (29%) HF cases developed in 8,624 European (mean age=54.2, 52% female) and 2,525 African (mean age=53.3, 61% female) Americans. The PRSs for AF and HF were associated with incident HF in both European and African Americans (P<0.05). The AF PRS showed the greatest effect on HF risk in European (HR=1.47, 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.53) and African (HR=1.29, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.39) Americans. Addition of AF PRS to the ARIC HF risk equation significantly improved the C-statistics for 10-year risk prediction in European (ΔC=0.017, 95% CI: 0.009 to 0.026) and African (ΔC=0.015, 95% CI: 0.004 to 0.026) Americans. The AF PRS was further associated with HF with reduced (HR=1.45, 95% CI: 1.29 to 1.64) and preserved (HR=1.49, 95% CI: 1.34 to 1.66) ejection fraction, and higher left atrial volume index (P=1.67х10 -4 ). Protein analyses revealed that 61 proteins were associated with AF PRS, where NT-proBNP and Coagulation factor X showed the strongest positive and negative associations respectively. Conclusions: The PRS of AF was associated with incident HF, and had significant incremental value over an established HF risk prediction equation. These findings suggest that PRS may be useful in identifying individuals with high risk of HF.