Pathways to achieve carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality by 2060: A case study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China

Global climate change, rapid urbanization, and drastic economic development pose many threats and challenges to humanity, increasing the need for sustainable development, urban ecological management, and low-carbon transformations. Comprehensive simulation models rarely involve all the aspects of carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, population, economic, and energy sections. Firstly, this study evaluated the changes of the carbon neutrality rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region from 2000 to 2019. Then, a Carbon Neutrality Simulation Model (CNSM) was built using system dynamics. Finally, an optimal development scenario and pathways were identified for the BTH region based on scenario analysis. The results revealed that: (1) Carbon emissions first increased rapidly and then stabilized, carbon sequestration did not significantly change, and carbon neutrality rate decreased. (2) The baseline scenario (S1) did not reach the “dual carbon” target with carbon emissions increasing to 832.62 Mt in 2030 and 914.26 Mt in 2060, whereas the carbon neutrality rate increased to 17.96 % in 2030 and 22.69 % in 2060. (3) Among the single-factor scenarios (S2–S7), the industrial restructuring scenario (S3) had the greatest carbon reduction potential, reaching the carbon peak target. (4) Among the multi-factor scenarios, all the three baseline economic scenarios (S8–S10) reached carbon peak target in 2043, 2029, and 2022. The high constraint scenario (S10) reached the carbon neutrality target, as the optimal development scenario for the BTH region. All the results provide scientific evidences to achieve carbon neutrality target and regional sustainable development.