Empirical decomposition and peaking path of carbon emissions in resource-based areas

The pre-development of resource-based regions has led to excessive CO2 emissions and caused serious damage to the ecological environment. A crucial step in combating the problem of global climate change is encouraging resource-based regions to complete the transition to a low-carbon economy. In this study, the influence factors of carbon emissions in resource-based regions were analyzed using the Generalized Diagrammatic index model (GDIM) based on the development characteristics of resource-based economy in Liaoning Province. Furthermore, this study conducted a Monte Carlo simulation of the trajectory of carbon emission peaking based on the scenario analysis. The results show that different industries need to develop targeted emission reduction programs according to their own development characteristics. In each industry, output scale and investment carbon intensity were the primary determinants of carbon emissions, whereas output carbon intensity, investment scale, and investment efficiency were the primary limiting variables. Other variables had varying effects on carbon emissions in other industries. If the previous economic development trend and emission reduction policies are followed, Liaoning's overall carbon emissions won't peak until 2030, and there is currently intense pressure on the province to cut emissions. The carbon peak pathway in the low-carbon scenario differs from that in the technological breakthrough scenario, and only low-carbon technology innovation and breakthrough can ensure that Liaoning will meet the carbon peak target before schedule. This article is useful as a source of information for studies on low-carbon sustainable development in resource-rich areas and as a theoretical foundation for Liaoning to meet its carbon peak objective.