A Novel Nomogram to Identify Candidates for Focal Therapy Among Patients with Localized Prostate Cancer Diagnosed via Magnetic Resonance Imaging–Targeted and Systematic Biopsies: A European Multicenter Study

Suitable selection criteria for focal therapy (FT) are crucial to achieve success in localized prostate cancer (PCa).To develop a multivariable model that better delineates eligibility for FT and reduces undertreatment by predicting unfavorable disease at radical prostatectomy (RP).Data were retrospectively collected from a prospective European multicenter cohort of 767 patients who underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted and systematic biopsies followed by RP in eight referral centers between 2016 and 2021. The Imperial College of London eligibility criteria for FT were applied: (1) unifocal MRI lesion with Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System score of 3-5; (2) prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ≤20 ng/ml; (3) cT2-3a stage on MRI; and (4) International Society of Urological Pathology grade group (GG) 1 and ≥6 mm or GG 2-3. A total of 334 patients were included in the final analysis.The primary outcome was unfavorable disease at RP, defined as GG ≥4, and/or lymph node invasion, and/or seminal vesicle invasion, and/or contralateral clinically significant PCa. Logistic regression was used to assess predictors of unfavorable disease. The performance of the models including clinical, MRI, and biopsy information was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis. A coefficient-based nomogram was developed and internally validated.Overall, 43 patients (13%) had unfavorable disease on RP pathology. The model including PSA, clinical stage on digital rectal examination, and maximum lesion diameter on MRI had an AUC of 73% on internal validation and formed the basis of the nomogram. Addition of other MRI or biopsy information did not significantly improve the model performance. Using a cutoff of 25%, the proportion of patients eligible for FT was 89% at the cost of missing 30 patients (10%) with unfavorable disease. External validation is required before the nomogram can be used in clinical practice.We report the first nomogram that improves selection criteria for FT and limits the risk of undertreatment.We conducted a study to develop a better way of selecting patients for focal therapy for localized prostate cancer. A novel predictive tool was developed using the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level measured before biopsy, tumor stage assessed via digital rectal examination, and lesion size on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans. This tool improves the prediction of unfavorable disease and may reduce the risk of undertreatment of localized prostate cancer when using focal therapy.