Spatiotemporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Urban Green Space Carbon Sinks in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from Accounting to Prediction

This study couples the InVEST and PLUS models to analyse spatiotemporal patterns and future carbon stock in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area from 1995 to 2050 under natural, ecological and economic scenarios. Results show that carbon stock decreased from 1995 to 2025, with a high periphery and low centre pattern, primarily due to the conversion of arable and forest land to construction. Ecological protection increases future stocks while economic development accelerates loss. The study provides a quantitative basis for land optimisation and carbon neutrality pathways.