Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification

Antarctic sea ice extent began declining in 2015, reaching its minimum in the post-1970s observational era in 2023. To diagnose the drivers of this decline, we analyze an observationally constrained sea ice-ocean model spanning 2013-2023 and identify three distinct phases of sea ice retreat. First, intensifying westerlies preconditioned the Southern Ocean via increased upwelling of warm, saline circumpolar deep water (CDW). Second, strong winds in 2015-2016 enhanced the mixing of CDW into the upper ocean, thereby initiating sea ice loss, particularly in East Antarctica. Third, sustained mixing of CDW into the surface layer, combined with reduced equatorward sea ice-derived freshwater export, maintained an unprecedentedly low sea ice state. East Antarctic sea ice loss was primarily subsurface driven via enhanced upward CDW flux, whereas West Antarctic sea ice loss was also forced by longwave radiative flux anomalies. Our findings suggest that persistent upwelling-favorable conditions under anthropogenic forcing may push the Southern Ocean into a prolonged low sea ice state.