Scenario analysis of hydrofluorocarbons consumption and emission reduction in China's mobile air-conditioning sector

The automobile air conditioning industry is an important consumption area of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), and the analysis of the use and emission reduction of HFCs in this industry is of great significance for environmental protection. This study aims to measure and analyze the HFC consumption and emission reduction in China's MAC industry and the cost of emission reduction in automobile enterprises through an in-depth analysis, to provide a scientific basis for the formulation of relevant policies and to support the country in achieving HFC emission reduction targets in the field of environmental protection. In this study, the Gompertz model combined with the vehicle survival rate Weibull was used to predict the vehicle ownership and sales in China, and then the HFC consumption and emission reduction in China's MAC industry and the cost of emission reduction in automobile enterprises were measured and analyzed with reference to the experience of relevant domestic and foreign measurement models. The results show that under the four scenarios of R27-X29, R29-X29, R29-X29, and R29-X35, the cumulative use of HFCs will be reduced by 61.44%−73.19%, and the cumulative emission will be reduced by 51.85%−64.55% in the period of 2023–2060, while the cumulative abatement cost of the automobile enterprises in the period of 2023–2060 will be RMB 419.31–481.02 billion. 481.02 billion yuan. The adoption of a policy banning HFCs refrigerants in M1 and N1 vehicles has a significant effect on reducing HFCs consumption and emissions, and the abatement cost will decrease with the expiration of new refrigerant patents, increased demand, and technological advancements.