Sleeve Grouting Process Risk Forecasting Based on System Dynamics for Industrialized Building Systems

The sleeve grouting process in prefabricated buildings is often affected by various factors due to its complex environment, and the lack of data and systematic methods makes risk control challenging. The dynamic risk control method of system dynamics provides support for the risk control of sleeve grouting. This study aims to develop a dynamic model of the sleeve grouting risk system to achieve dynamic control of risk factors. First, the risk index system of sleeve grouting was established by means of literature analysis and expert interviews. Then the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was established, and the weight of risk factors was determined by the combination of AHP and the entropy weight method. Finally, a dynamic model of the sleeve grouting risk system was established, incorporating causal cycle diagrams and stock-flow diagrams. This model enables dynamic analysis of the risk factors. The analysis results indicate that personnel risks and environmental equipment risks are the primary sources of risk, while management and technical risks have the most significant impact on the overall risk level of sleeve grouting. Over time, management risks become increasingly prominent. Based on these findings, this study proposes three recommendations for optimizing risk control to enhance the quality of sleeve grouting operations. Compared with traditional methods, the proposed model enables dynamic risk control over time.