Association between distinct body mass index trajectories according to the group‐based trajectory modeling and the risk of incident diabetes: A systematic review

Summary We aimed to determine the association between distinct body mass index (BMI) trajectories, using group‐based trajectory modeling, and the subsequent risk of incident diabetes. Five databases were systematically searched. Fourteen population‐based cohort studies that summarized the association between different BMI trajectories and subsequent diabetes, with the four most common BMI trajectories including the “stable,” “increasing,” “decreasing,” and “turning” groups, were included. The rapid increase and stable high‐level BMI groups showed the strongest association with the subsequent risk of diabetes compared with the stable normal BMI group. Increased baseline BMI levels resulted in a steeper slope and greater risk of subsequent diabetes. In the decreasing BMI group, one study reported that those aged >50 years showed the highest incidence of subsequent diabetes, whereas the other two studies reported no association between these two variables. In the turning group, an increase followed by a decrease in BMI levels from adolescence to late adulthood could reduce the risk of developing diabetes, although the residual risk remained. By contrast, the incidence of subsequent diabetes remained high in the middle‐aged BMI‐turning group. This study can provide further insights for identifying populations at high risk of diabetes and for developing targeted prevention strategies.