Geospatial Simulation Model of Deforestation and Reforestation Using Multicriteria Evaluation

Deforestation is an anthropic phenomenon that negatively affects the environment and therefore the climate, the carbon cycle, biodiversity and the sustainability of agriculture and drinking water sources. Deforestation is counteracted by reforestation processes, which is caused by the natural regeneration of forests or by the establishment of plantations. The present research is focused on generating a simulation model to predict the deforestation and reforestation for 2030 and 2050 using geospatial analysis techniques and multicriteria evaluation. The case study is the North Pacific Basin, which is one of the areas with the greatest loss of forest cover in Mexico. The results of the spatial analysis of forest dynamics determined that the forest area in 2030 would be 98,713.52 km2, while in 2050 would be 101,239.8 km2. The mean annual deforestation and reforestation expected in the study area is 115 and 193.84 km2, for the 2014–2030 period, while mean annual deforestation and reforestation values of 95 and 221.31 km2 are expected for the 2030–2050 period. Therefore, considering the forest cover predicted by the deforestation and reforestation model, a carbon capture of 16,209.67 ton/C was estimated for the 2014–2030 period and 587,596.01 ton/C for the 2030–2050.