From academic lab to spinoff: How opportunity beliefs evolve from individual to venture during technology-market matching

Academic labs are central to the creation of radical-generic technologies. Yet translating these inventions into successful innovations poses a significant challenge as academic scientists often struggle to identify and prioritize viable markets in the early stages of commercialization. This study examines how individual scientists' opportunity beliefs evolve into the shared commercialization strategy of an academic spinoff. Using a longitudinal single-case study of the technology-market matching (TMM) process of a radical-generic technology, we analyze individual and team assessments of eight technology-market combinations over 15 years. We show that opportunity beliefs evolve from an initial emphasis on functional aspects of structural similarity toward an increasing emphasis on commercial viability, eventually integrating balanced similarity considerations. Within TMM, three mechanisms – productive cognitive dissonance, expanded similarity awareness, and team reflexivity – explain how heterogeneous individual beliefs evolve and coalesce into the commercialization strategy of the spinoff. We introduce “simmering-with-the-lab” as an organizational strategy through which latent technology-market options are maintained in the academic lab while the spinoff pursues a narrower set of commercial opportunities. The study advances theory on TMM and organizational learning for deep tech academic spinoffs and has practical implications for science entrepreneurship training, innovation policy, and university IP strategy.