A predictive model of 30-day mortality in patients with acute type A aortic dissection

Objective Acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD) is a life-threatening cardiovascular disease that requires an effective predictive model to predict and assess a patient's risk of death. Our study aimed to construct a model for predicting the risk of 30-day death in patients with ATAAD and the prediction accuracy of the German Registry of Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) Score and the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II) was verified. Materials and Methods Between June 2019 and June 2023, 109 patients with ATAAD underwent surgical treatment at our hospital (35 in the death group and 74 in the survival group). The differences in image parameters between the two groups were compared. Search for independent predictors and develop models that predict 30-day mortality in patients with ATAAD. GERAADA Score and EuroSCORE II were retrospectively calculated and indicated mortality was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results Logistic regression analysis showed that ascending aortic length and pericardial effusion were independent predictors of death within 30 days in patients with ATAAD. We constructed four models, GERAADA Score (Model 1), EuroSCORE II (Model 2), Model 1, ascending aorta length, and pericardial effusion (Model 3), and Model 2, ascending aorta length, and pericardial effusion (Model 4). The area under the curve (AUC = 0.832) of Model 3 was significantly different from those of Models 1 (AUC = 0.683) and 2 (AUC = 0.599), respectively (p < 0.05, DeLong test). Conclusions Adding ascending aorta length and pericardial effusion to the GERAADA Score can improve the predictive power of 30-day mortality in patients with ATAAD.