Carbon storage and sequestration in a eucalyptus productive zone in the Brazilian Cerrado, using the Ca-Markov/Random Forest and InVEST models

Tropical ecosystems in Brazil, particularly Mato Grosso do Sul, possess substantial greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential through carbon sequestration in tree forests. However, the expansion of agricultural activities poses a threat to this potential. Notably, eucalyptus forests could enhance carbon sequestration and reduce GHG emissions. This study focused on Três Lagoas, known as Brazil's cellulose capital, and aimed to evaluate carbon stock and sequestration for 2030 under business as usual (BAU) and protected forest (PF) scenarios. Combining Cellular Automata (CA) and Random Forest models implemented in Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, we simulated land use scenarios and assessed ecosystem services generated by carbon sequestration. The results showed that the PF scenario indicated a higher total carbon stock than the BAU scenario, with a difference of 2.48 Tg. Carbon sequestration varied by period and scenario. Between 2010 and 2020, 3.88 Tg of carbon were sequestered. However, in the next period (2020–2030), the BAU scenario estimated 2.45 Tg in total carbon sequestration. In contrast, the PF scenario predicted 4.93 Tg of carbon sequestration for 2020–2030, surpassing the previous decade. Monetarily, carbon sequestration in 2010–2020 amounted to $92.48 million, decreasing to $58.49 million for 2020–2030 in the BAU scenario. In the PF scenario, sequestration for 2020–2030 increased to $ 117.43 million, nearly double that of the BAU scenario. In conclusion, combining the Ca-Markov/Random Forest and InVEST models revealed the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon stock and sequestration in the municipality with the largest eucalyptus-planted area in Brazil. The results underscore the significant variability in carbon stocks and sequestration based on classes, periods, and scenarios analyzed. This study contributes valuable insights into the potential for carbon mitigation in this critical region.