Towards the Prediction of Resilience; An Equation-based Resilience Representation

The performance curve of a system during a disruption is widely used in the literature as an illustration of the system's resilience capabilities, especially in socio-technical works.To improve the resilience of a system, an important step is to develop methods and techniques to properly quantify relevant resilience metrics.Despite the importance, no final consensus has been reached regarding the mathematical definition of the concept of resilience.Against this backdrop, this works presents an analytic equation to fit the whole evolution of the system's performance curve during a disruption.This enables a decision maker to determine model parameters that are directly linked to the system's resilience capabilities.It can additionally serve as a base to predict resilience curves in future works.We propose to use two sigmoid functions to represent the resilience of a generic system.