The influence of demographic structure on residential buildings' carbon emissions in China

In the process of advancing China's carbon peak strategy, the residential building is a crucial sector for carbon mitigation. The energy demand for residential buildings, which is dominated by household consumption, is rapidly rising; coping with aging crisis and reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are two major challenges facing China. This study explores the complex relation between demographic structure and residential buildings' CO2 emissions, and then simulates the future carbon peaking trajectory based on scenario prediction model. The relevant results are fourfold. 1) The overall coupling coordination degree of demographic structure and residential buildings' CO2 emissions in China has entered the optimal state (i.e. high-quality coordination level) until 2020. 2) The increased household size and proportion of children population from 2010 to 2020 had an inhibitory effect on residential buildings' CO2 emissions, whereas increased population size and proportion of elderly population had a promotional effect. 3) Under the influence of demographic structure change, peak residential buildings' CO2 emissions are predicted to be delayed from 2030 to 2032 in China, and the peak value will increase by 3.56%, reaching 1.527 billion tons. 4) At the provincial degree, under the baseline scenario, Beijing will be the first to achieve peak CO2 emissions in 2026; under the aging scenario, Yunnan and Beijing will be the first to reach peak CO2 emissions in 2028. This study provides a reference for Chinese policymakers and other countries to incorporate demographic structure into future projections to advance carbon reduction targets' achievement in the building sector.