THE RELATIONSHIP OF DROUGHT FREQUENCY AND DURATION TO TIME SCALES

1.0 INTRODUCTION Five practical issues become important in any analysis of drought. These include: 1) time scale, 2) probability, 3) precipitation deficit, 4) application of the definition to precipitation and to the five water supply variables, and 5) the relationship of the definition to the impacts of drought. Frequency, duration and intensity of drought all become functions that depend on the implicitly or explicitly established time scales. Our experience in providing drought information to a collection of decision makers in Colorado is that they have a need for current conditions expressed in terms of probability, water deficit, and water supply as a percent of average using recent climatic history (the last 30 to 100 years) as the basis for comparison. No single drought definition or analysis method has emerged that addresses all these issues well. Of the variety of definitions and drought monitoring methods used in the past, by far the most widely used in the United States is the Palmer Drought Index (Palmer, 1965), but its weaknesses (Alley, 1984) frequently limit its wise application. For example, time scale is not defined for the Palmer Index but does inherently exist. The definition of drought has continually been a stumbling block for drought monitoring and analysis. Wilhite and Glantz (1985) completed a thorough review of dozens of drought definitions and identified six overall categories: meteorological, climatological, atmospheric, agricultural, hydrologic and water management. Dracup et al. (1980) also reviewed definitions. All points of view seem to agree that drought is a condition of insufficient moisture caused by a deficit in precipitation over some time period. Difficulties are primarily related to the time period over which deficits accumulate and to the connection of the deficit in precipitation to deficits in usable water sources and the impacts that ensue.