Exploring the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of CO2 Emissions through a Combination of Nighttime Light and MODIS NDVI Data

Climate change caused by CO2 emissions is posing a huge challenge to human survival, and it is crucial to precisely understand the spatial and temporal patterns and driving forces of CO2 emissions in real time. However, the available CO2 emission data are usually converted from fossil fuel combustion, which cannot capture spatial differences. Nighttime light (NTL) data can reveal human activities in detail and constitute the shortage of statistical data. Although NTL can be used as an indirect representation of CO2 emissions, NTL data have limited utility. Therefore, it is necessary to develop a model that can capture spatiotemporal variations in CO2 emissions at a fine scale. In this paper, we used the nighttime light and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and proposed a normalized urban index based on combination variables (NUI-CV) to improve estimated CO2 emissions. Based on this index, we used the Theil–Sen and Mann–Kendall trend analysis, standard deviational ellipse, and a spatial economics model to explore the spatial and temporal dynamics and influencing factors of CO2 emissions over the period of 2000–2020. The experimental results indicate the following: (1) NUI-CV is more suitable than NTL for estimating the CO2 emissions with a 6% increase in average R2. (2) The center of China’s CO2 emissions lies in the eastern regions and is gradually moving west. (3) Changes in industrial structure can strongly influence changes in CO2 emissions, the tertiary sector playing an important role in carbon reduction.