Fuzzy composite risk assessment of water-energy-food-carbon nexus in the dispark pumped irrigation system

Water, energy, food, and carbon are the most fundamental elements of agricultural development, and the essential needs that human beings and society depend on for survival. Systematic and quantitative analysis of the risks of the water-energy-food-carbon (WEFC) nexus is significant for resource management, especially in irrigated agriculture. Here, the water-energy-food-carbon nexus composite risk index (CRI) was calculated through a fuzzy composite risk assessment model (FCRAM) combined with food trade and virtual water flow, and the multi-dimensional influence mechanism was excavated via partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) in Lianshui irrigation district (LID), a pumped irrigation system in east China. Results indicated that the amount of food trade, virtual water flow, and carbon footprint were calculated as 6146 M kg, 7451 M m3, and 57909 kg in LID, and varied among the three sub-irrigation areas. Annual CRI in LID was 0.48 and higher than that of the three sub-irrigation areas, and CRI showed an increasing trend as a whole. Agricultural production risks varied under various precipitation conditions. The influence path was meteorological -> resources -> economic -> social -> CRI, among which economic was the main driving factor of the CRI in the dispark WEFC nexus. Therefore, it is more effective to regulate the agricultural economic and decelerate further climate deterioration to prevent and control agricultural production risks.