Segmenting customer adoption of new consumer packaged goods using latent growth curve modeling

This study identifies latent customer adoption segments based on the statistical similarity of the shapes and temporal patterns of customers’ behavior responses to 35 newly launched successful and unsuccessful consumer food and beverage products while accounting for the effects of in-store marketing mix efforts. Using group-based trajectory modeling on 6 years of data from the IRI Behaviorscan Database, we find that a relatively small number of unique and interesting statistically similar segments can be derived and that these segments evolve similarly across multiple new products in multiple CPG product categories. The segments respond to marketing mix efforts in relatively understandable ways and present unique opportunities for marketers seeking marketplace success for their new CPG products.