Effect of Heat Resource Effectiveness Change on Rice Potential Yield in Southern China

During the rice growing season, farmers’ decisions about cropping systems and seed varieties directly affect the utilization of heat resource, and eventually affect the potential yield. In this study, we used the hourly accumulated temperature model to calculate the available heat resource as well as the effective heat resource in southern China. We conducted a spatiotemporal analysis of the heat resource effectiveness during rice growing season and an impact assessment of heat resource effectiveness on rice potential yield and cereal yield reduction. The results showed that, during the period of 1951–2015, heat resource effectiveness generally declined in the rice cropping area of southern China. And this decrease worsened during the most recent three decades compared with the period of 1951–1980. A strong correlation was detected between heat resource effectiveness and rice potential yield in the study area. When the effective heat resource during the growing season increased by 1 °C·d, rice potential yield would increase by 14 kg ha−1. For each percentage increase in heat resource effectiveness, the rice potential yield reduction rate would go down by 0.65%. This agro-climatological study aims to offer a scientific basis for rice production decisions in southern China, such as when to plant, which varieties to choose and so on.