Risk factors for peripancreatic and pancreatic infection of acute pancreatitis and the development of a clinical prediction model

Infected necrotizing pancreatitis (INP) is a serious complication that can increase the length of hospital stay and the cost of treatment, and is the leading cause of death in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP). This article aimed to predict the possibility of pancreatic and peripancreatic infections by early clinical indicators of AP and construct a clinical prediction model. We retrospectively studied consecutive patients admitted to the Nankai Hospital for moderate severe AP and severe AP, which developed within 2 weeks. Logistic regression was used to evaluate potential factors that could lead to INP and to develop clinical prediction model. Persistent organ failure, pancreatic necrosis area, and procalcitonin account were risk factors for INP. A prediction model was constructed based on the risk factors. The results showed that the model had good predictive performance. We developed a clinical prediction model with good predictive results that can be helpful for clinicians to identify and prevent the development of INP at an early stage.