Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development

Anthropogenic mineral circularity offers a synergistic solution to dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in photovoltaic development. However, the global supply potential of secondary materials remains underexplored, limiting future informed decision-making. Here, we present the global analysis of secondary material supply potential in five photovoltaic technologies under different energy scenarios, using the tailored modeling framework. Results show that cumulative material demand and waste generation are projected to reach 705-1879 megatonnes and 238-529 megatonnes, respectively, by 2050. With the circularity strategy, the annual supply ratio of secondary materials is expected to increase from 3.3% in 2020 to 43.4%-101.6% by 2050, with silver and tellurium potentially in surplus. Additionally, circularity brings 6.6%-55.0% decrease in metal criticality, 321-700 billion US Dollars economic potential, and 697.0-1546.1 megatonnes CO₂-equivalent emissions reductions. This study quantifies anthropogenic mineral circularity's role in photovoltaic development and provides insights for energy transition.