Ecological Carrying Capacity Estimation of the Trails in a Protected Area: Integrating a Path Analysis Model and the Stakeholders’ Evaluation

Trails are important recreation settings; determining an appropriate trail usage amount to avoid unacceptable ecological impacts is important for protected areas. However, there is a lack of studies examining trail usage’s direct and indirect relationships and the influence of landscape-level conditions to evaluate ecological carrying capacity. This study integrated a path analysis model and stakeholder assessment to estimate the ecological carrying capacity of trails in a protected area. This study surveyed the biophysical environment along the trails and conducted a path analysis to establish the use–impact model for the trails in the study area. Based on the use–impact model, this study developed four-level usage scenarios and collected the stakeholders’ acceptance evaluation to determine the ecological carrying capacity range. The results showed that the weekly usage of the trails directly affected the soil hardness and plant coverage of the trail. The trail’s soil hardness directly affected the surrounding soil hardness, decreasing its plant coverage, while the vegetation type and slope also affected its plant cover. The stakeholders of the Mt. Xiaoguanyin Area reached a consensus on the ecological carrying capacity range, which was 288 to 404 total weekly hikers. The study results revealed the effect paths of the landscape-level conditions and usage impacts and provided managers with an implementable ecological carrying capacity. The estimation framework could be a reference for determining ecological carrying capacity in other protected areas.