Land Use Carbon Emission Measurement and Risk Zoning under the Background of the Carbon Peak: A Case Study of Shandong Province, China

Land use and cover change (LUCC) has a non-negligible impact on both carbon emissions and carbon sinks. Based on the analysis of land use dynamics in Shandong Province, this study simulates land use changes in Shandong Province in 2030 under the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), classifies the risk level of carbon emissions in Shandong Province using the Land Use Carbon Emission (LUCE) risk indexes, and compares the differences between the risk level regions under NDS and SDS. This study shows that under the influence of LUCC, the carbon emissions in Shandong province increased significantly, from 90.5591 million tons in 2000 to 493.538 million tons in 2020, with urban land being the main source of carbon emissions, which increased from 90.0757 million tons in 2000 to 490.139 million tons in 2020. The main source of the increase in urban land was cropland. The LUCE was positively correlated with urban land area. The LUCE of SDS was 7.2423 million tons less than that of NDS. From 2000 to 2020, the risk areas of LUCE in Shandong province were mainly no-risk and mild-risk areas. The number of moderate-risk areas and high-risk areas of SDS was less than that of NDS. The rational organization of land use is important for Shandong Province to achieve low-carbon development.