High-resolution projection of future climate change over South Korea under global warming levels of 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C based on shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios

In this study, we projected climate change by region over South Korea under Global Warming Levels (GWL) of 1.5, 2.0, and 3.0°C using new high-resolution (1 km) simulations. We combined 5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and used them for future projection. The findings indicate that, as global warming progresses, the annual mean temperature in South Korea will increase by +0.7, +1.4, and +2.6°C, respectively, compared to present-day (2000 ~ 2019). There is no significant change in total precipitation under the 1.5°C GWL condition. However, an increase of +4.0% (+5.8%) is expected under the 2.0°C (3.0°C) GWL condition, with a significant increase in precipitation expected during the months of July to September. The study also finds that extreme high-temperature indices are projected to increase more significantly than the annual mean temperature, suggesting that future annual temperature ranges may increase. Additionally, extreme climate indices for precipitation are projected to increase unless GWL is limited to 1.5°C, with a notable impact in the Jeju area. The results of this study are expected to be used as fundamental data for establishment of national climate change adaptation policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality.