Dynamic Warning Method for Structural Health Monitoring Data Based on ARIMA: Case Study of Hong Kong–Zhuhai–Macao Bridge Immersed Tunnel

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is gradually replacing traditional manual detection and is becoming a focus of the research devoted to the operation and maintenance of tunnel structures. However, in the face of massive SHM data, the autonomous early warning method is still required to further reduce the burden of manual analysis. Thus, this study proposed a dynamic warning method for SHM data based on ARIMA and applied it to the concrete strain data of the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge (HZMB) immersed tunnel. First, wavelet threshold denoising was applied to filter noise from the SHM data. Then, the feasibility and accuracy of establishing an ARIMA model were verified, and it was adopted to predict future time series of SHM data. After that, an anomaly detection scheme was proposed based on the dynamic model and dynamic threshold value, which set the confidence interval of detected anomalies based on the statistical characteristics of the historical series. Finally, a hierarchical warning system was defined to classify anomalies according to their detection threshold and enable hierarchical treatments. The illustrative example of the HZMB immersed tunnel verified that a three-level (5.5 σ, 6.5 σ, and 7.5 σ) dynamic warning schematic can give good results of anomalies detection and greatly improves the efficiency of SHM data management of the tunnel.