Construction Project Risk Control Based on Expertise Using Fuzzy Set Theory

Construction Project Risk Control Based on Expertise Using Fuzzy Set Theory Andrzej Minasowicz, Bartosz Kostrzewa, Jacek Zawistowski Pages 101-106 (2011 Proceedings of the 28th ISARC, Seoul, Korea, ISBN 978-89-954572-4-5, ISSN 2413-5844) Abstract: The article shows procedure, which enables to control risk during project lifetime on the basis of earned value theory ratings variation in feasibility study. Sample project has been divided into typical investment tasks, then schedule and cost estimate have been worked out. Information according possible cost and time variation for any task has been based on expert knowledge, using mathematical instrument, which is fuzzy set theory. Schedules which contain initial data and variations defined by experts have been worked out, using MS-Excel and MS-Project programs. As a result, we get hypothetical graphs showing: Budget Cost of Work Scheduled, optimistic / pessimistic Actual Cost of Work Performed - ACWPopt / ACWPpes, optimistic / pessimistic Budget Cost of Work Performed - BCWPopt / BCWPpes. In this way, investor or contractor is able to determine at any stage of project, if extreme values haven't been exceeded. It is also possible to specify cost and time risk at feasibility study stage. According to this, project financing is easier to planned, and also less subject to additional problems related with cash flow deadlines. Presented analysis can be used to control project management at the same time. In case of exceeding extreme values of earned value method ratings, board of directors have knowledge about project management quality. Keywords: Risk, Management, Civil Engineering, Fuzzy Sets, Earned Value Theory, Control DOI: https://doi.org/10.22260/ISARC2011/0015 Download fulltext Download BibTex Download Endnote (RIS) TeX Import to Mendeley