A Method for Predicting Transformer Oil-Dissolved Gas Concentration Based on Multi-Window Stepwise Decomposition with HP-SSA-VMD-LSTM

Predicting the concentration of dissolved gases in transformer oil is a critical activity for the early detection of potential faults. To address the prevalent issue of data leakage in current prediction methods, this paper proposes a prediction method that completely avoids data leakage. First, the Hodrick Prescott (HP) filter is used for stepwise decomposition to obtain the long-term trend and high-frequency periodic component. The high-frequency periodic component is further decomposed using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to extract periodic features. Dispersion entropy (DE) and fuzzy entropy (FE) are utilized alongside the HP and SSA methods to determine the optimal decomposition windows during the process, enhancing the ability of the model to acquire time series features. Then, variational mode decomposition (VMD) is applied to remove noise from the high-frequency component. Finally, the long short-term memory network (LSTM) is employed to predict each decomposed component, and the network parameters undergo optimization through the sparrow search optimization algorithm (SSOA). The two case studies in this work verify that the proposed model excels over other prediction means, providing strong support for subsequent fault prediction.