A Full-Life-Cycle Modeling Framework for Cropland Abandonment Detection Based on Dense Time Series of Landsat-Derived Vegetation and Soil Fractions

Remotely sensed cropland abandonment monitoring is crucial for providing spatially explicit references for maintaining sustainable agricultural practices and ensuring food security. However, abandoned cropland is commonly detected based on multi-date classification or the dynamics of a single vegetation index, with the interactions between vegetation and soil time series often being neglected, leading to a failure to understand its full-life-cycle succession processes. To fill this gap, we propose a new full-life-cycle modeling framework based on the interactive trajectories of vegetation–soil-related endmembers to identify abandoned and reclaimed cropland in Jinan from 2000 to 2022. In this framework, highly accurate annual fractional vegetation- and soil-related endmember time series are generated for Jinan City for the 2000–2022 period using spectral mixture models. These are then used to integrally reconstruct temporal trajectories for complex scenarios (e.g., abandonment, weed invasion, reclamation, and fallow) using logistic and double-logistic models. The parameters of the optimization model (fitting type, change magnitude, start timing, and change duration) are subsequently integrated to develop a rule-based hierarchical identification scheme for cropland abandonment based on these complex scenarios. After applying this scheme, we observed a significant decline in green vegetation (a slope of −0.40% per year) and an increase in the soil fraction (a rate of 0.53% per year). These pathways are mostly linked to a duration between 8 and 15 years, with the beginning of the change trend around 2010. Finally, the results show that our framework can effectively separate abandoned cropland from reclamation dynamics and other classes with satisfactory precision, as indicated by an overall accuracy of 86.02%. Compared to the traditional yearly land cover-based approach (with an overall accuracy of 77.39%), this algorithm can overcome the propagation of classification errors (with product accuracy from 74.47% to 85.11%), especially in terms of improving the ability to capture changes at finer spatial scales. Furthermore, it also provides a better understanding of the whole abandonment process under the influence of multi-factor interactions in the context of specific climatic backgrounds and human disturbances, thus helping to inform adaptive abandonment management and sustainable agricultural policies.