反事实条件
经济
构造(python库)
计量经济学
休克(循环)
经验证据
功能(生物学)
系列(地层学)
反事实思维
计算机科学
心理学
医学
社会心理学
哲学
古生物学
认识论
进化生物学
内科学
生物
程序设计语言
作者
Alisdair McKay,Christian K. Wolf
出处
期刊:Econometrica
[Wiley]
日期:2023-01-01
卷期号:91 (5): 1695-1725
摘要
We show that, in a general family of linearized structural macroeconomic models, knowledge of the empirically estimable causal effects of contemporaneous and news shocks to the prevailing policy rule is sufficient to construct counterfactuals under alternative policy rules. If the researcher is willing to postulate a loss function, our results furthermore allow her to recover an optimal policy rule for that loss. Under our assumptions, the derived counterfactuals and optimal policies are robust to the Lucas critique. We then discuss strategies for applying these insights when only a limited amount of empirical causal evidence on policy shock transmission is available.
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