Dependence evaluation of factors influencing coal spontaneous ignition

Abstract Coal spontaneous combustion is determined by a variety of factors. Testing can describe the changes incoal spontaneous combustion with various factors, however, the dependence of spontaneous combustion on various factors is unclear. Therefore, reliability theory was used to deduce the functional relationship of the dependence of coal spontaneous combustion on various factors, and construct a model algorithm for predicting the probability of occurrence of coal spontaneous combustion, which is adopted to evaluate and rank the degree of influence of various factors on coal spontaneous combustion. Effective prevention methods are proposed by strengthening the role of the most important factors. The results show that, by taking the duration of coal heating to 150°C as the measurement standard of coal spontaneous combustion, the duration of the initial stage of coal heating increases linearly with the increase of specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity, and moisture content of coal. With the increase of oxygen concentration, oxidation rate, and initial temperature of the coal, the duration of the initial stage of coal heating decreases exponentially. With the increase of gas flow seepage velocity in the coal body, the duration of the initial heating stage changes in a parabolic manner. At the same time, the probability of spontaneous combustion decreases exponentially with the increase of specific heat capacity and moisture content of the coal. The probability of coal spontaneous combustion increases linearly with the increase of coal thermal conductivity, oxygen concentration, gas seepage velocity, and rate of oxidation. The dependence of coal spontaneous combustion probability on different factors can be expressed as follows: coal temperature > gas seepage velocity > specific heat capacity > oxidation rate > oxygen concentration > moisture content > thermal conductivity.