Energetic Parameters of Rowing Performance: Will the Distance Change in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympic Games Matter?

ABSTRACT Purpose The study aimed to model rowing in a single scull, considering individual physiological characteristics of rowers, to determine the optimal pacing strategy over 2000 m (current Olympic distance) and 1500 m (future Olympic distance for 2028), as well as the sensitivity of performance to specific physiological factors at these distances. Methods A validated mechanical model of rowing was coupled with an athlete-specific physiological model (digital twin) to determine optimal pacing strategies for two model athletes (a female and a male rower). Energy production was analyzed using both oxidative ( O 2,peak ) and non-oxidative ( E non − ox ) sources, using numerical and analytical approaches. Results For the 2000 m distance, the optimal pacing strategy involved a gradual deceleration over the first 1500 m, followed by a final sprint over the last 500 m, similar to current observed trends. For the 1500 m distance, the optimal pacing strategy lacked this final sprint. Reducing the distance increased the proportion of non-oxidative energy by 5%. Sensitivity of performance to O 2,peak was consistent across both distances, showing a 1% performance gain for every 3% increase in O 2,peak . In contrast, the sensitivity of E non − ox increased as distance decreased (a 1% performance gain requiring an 11% increase for 2000 m vs. a 13% increase for 1500 m in non-oxidative capacity). Conclusions Optimal pacing strategies differ between 2000 m and 1500 m, with the latter requiring a less even pace with a faster start and without a final sprint. Sensitivity to O 2,peak is consistently higher than that of E non − ox at both distances, highlighting the critical role of oxidative capacity in rowing performance.