Analysis of oasis land ecological security and influencing factors in arid areas

Abstract Arid oasis areas are typical ecologically fragile areas, and Land ecological security (LES) reflects the relationship between oasis land use and socio‐economics. At present, the evaluation of oasis LES is still in the exploration stage, and there is a lack of dynamic evaluation of LES from a spatial and temporal perspective, and the interaction between influencing factors is not considered, which often affects the reliability of LES evaluation results and the optimization of land scenarios. This study analyzes the dynamic changes in land use in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) oasis from 1990 to 2020 and constructs a pressure‐state‐response (PSR) model to assess the spatial and temporal patterns of the LES. Then, the spatial correlation and spatial divergence of the LES were explored using the Moran index. Finally, the geographical detector analysis was used to reveal the drivers of the spatiotemporal divergence of LES patterns in the TRB oasis and the interaction effects of the influencing factors. The results reveal that there is significant spatial and temporal variability in the LES level of TRB oases, with the eastern region continuing to deteriorate while the western region continues to improve. Between 1990 and 2020, the largest increase in TRB oases was 24,089.52 km 2 of cultivated land and the largest decrease was 47,117.03 km 2 of grassland. Also, there are interactions between the variables. The greatest associations between the three variables‐the forest coverage raste, the proportion of the tertiary industry, and rural per capita net income‐all reached over 0.88. This study evaluates the LES and analyzes the affecting factors, which contribute to the development of refined land optimization countermeasures and offers a foundation for the realization of sustainable land use in oases and the establishment of oasis ecological civilization.