生态系统服务
土地覆盖
环境科学
土地利用
城市化
土地退化
栖息地
生态系统
生态学
土地利用、土地利用的变化和林业
土地开发
环境资源管理
环境保护
地理
生物
作者
Guangyi Deng,Haibo Jiang,Shanfeng Zhu,Wen Ye,Chunguang He,Xue Wang,Lianxi Sheng,Yuanqiang Guo,Yingyue Cao
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.169908
摘要
Anthropogenic activities have dramatically altered land use/land cover (LULC), leading to ecosystem service (ES) degradation and further ecological risks. Ecological risks are particularly serious in ecologically fragile regions because trade-offs between economic development and ecological protection are prominent. Thus, ways in which to assess the response of ecological risks to LULC change under each development scenario in ecologically fragile regions remain challenging. In this study, future LUCC and its impact on ESs under four development scenarios in 2040 in western Jilin Province were predicted using a patch-generating land use simulation model and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model. Ecological risk was assessed based on future LUCC possibilities, and potential ES degradation and potential drivers of ecological risks were explored using a geographic detector. The results showed that the cropland development scenario (CDS) would experience large-scale urbanization and cropland expansion. Carbon storage (CS), habitat quality (HQ), and water purification (WP) degraded the most under the CDS, and grain yield (GY) and water yield (WY) degraded the most under the ecological protection scenario (EPS). The LUCC probability under the CDS (14.37 %) was the highest, while the LUCC probability under the comprehensive development scenario (CPDS) (8.68 %) was the lowest. The risk of WP degradation was greatest under the CDS, but the risk of soil retention (SR) degradation was greatest under the natural development scenario (NDS), EPS, and CPDS. Ecological risk coverage was the largest (98.04 %), and ecological risks were the highest (0.21) under the CDS, while those under the EPS were the opposite. Distance to roads and population density had a higher impact on ecological risks than other drivers. Further attention should be given to the ecological networks and pattern establishment in urbanized regions. This study will contribute to risk prevention and sustainable urban and agricultural development.
科研通智能强力驱动
Strongly Powered by AbleSci AI