Develop and Validate a Risk Score in Predicting Renal Failure in Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a risk score (RS) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in patients with focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS).Patient with biopsy-proven FSGS was enrolled. All the patients were allocated 1:1 to the two groups according to their baseline gender, age, and baseline creatinine level by using a stratified randomization method. ESKD was the primary endpoint.We recruited 359 FSGS patients, and 177 subjects were assigned to group 1 and 182 to group 2. The clinicopathological variables were similar between two groups. There were 23 (13%) subjects reached to ESKD in group 1 and 22 (12.1%) in group 2. By multivariate Cox regression analyses, we established RS 1 and RS 2 in groups 1 and 2, respectively. RS 1 consists of five parameters including lower eGFR, higher urine protein, MAP, IgG level, and tubulointerstitial lesion (TIL) score; RS 2 also consists of five predictors including lower C3, higher MAP, IgG level, hemoglobin, and TIL score. RS 1 and RS 2 were cross-validated between these two groups, showing RS 1 had better performance in predicting 5-year ESKD in group 1 (c statics, 0.86 [0.74-0.98] vs. 0.82 [0.69-0.95]) and group 2 (c statics, 0.91 [0.83-0.99] vs. 0.89 [0.79-0.99]) compared to RS 2. We then stratified the risk factors into four groups, and Kaplan-Meier survival curve revealed that patients progressed to ESKD increased as risk levels increased.A predictive model incorporated clinicopathological feature was developed and validated for the prediction of ESKD in FSGS patients.