The relationship between neurological function trajectory, assessed by repeated NIHSS measurement, and long-term cardiovascular events, recurrent stroke, and mortality after ischemic stroke

BACKGROUND: Clinically significant changes in neurological deficits frequently occur after stroke onset, reflecting further neurological injury or neurological improvement. However, the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score is only evaluated once in most studies, usually at stroke onset. Utilizing repeated measures of NIHSS scores to identify different trajectories of neurological function may be more informative and provide more useful predictive information. We determined the association of neurological function trajectories with long-term clinical outcomes after ischemic stroke. METHODS: A total of 4025 participants with ischemic stroke from the China Antihypertensive Trial in Acute Ischemic Stroke were included. Patients were recruited from 26 hospitals across China between August 2009 and May 2013. A group-based trajectory model was used to identify distinct neurological function trajectories, as measured by NIHSS at admission, 14 days or hospital discharge, and 3 months. Study outcomes were cardiovascular events, recurrent stroke, and all-cause mortality during 3-24 months after ischemic stroke onset. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of neurological function trajectories with outcomes. RESULTS: We identified three distinct subgroups of NIHSS trajectories: persistent severe (persistent high NIHSS scores during the 3-month follow-up), moderate (NIHSS scores started at around 5 and gradually reduced), and mild (NIHSS scores always below 2). The three trajectory groups had different clinical profiles and different risk of stroke outcomes at 24-month follow-up. Compared to the mild trajectory group, patients in the persistent severe trajectory group had a higher risk of cardiovascular events (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) = 1.77 (1.10-2.86)), recurrent stroke (1.82 (1.10-3.00)), and all-cause mortality (5.64 (3.37-9.43)). Those with moderate trajectory had an intermediate risk: 1.45 (1.03-2.04) for cardiovascular events and 1.52 (1.06-2.19) for recurrent stroke. CONCLUSION: Longitudinal neurological function trajectories derived from repeated NIHSS measurements during the first 3 months after stroke provide additional predictive information and are associated with long-term clinical outcomes. The trajectories characterized by persistent severe and moderate neurological impairment were associated with increased risk of subsequent cardiovascular events.