A simple AGED score for risk classification of primary liver cancer: development and validation with long-term prospective HBsAg-positive cohorts in Qidong, China

We read with great interest the recent publication by Kim et al 1 showing that patients with untreated immune tolerant (IT) chronic hepatitis B with normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels had significantly higher risks of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death/transplantation than treated immune active (IA) patients who had elevated ALT levels. These results indicate that ALT is not a sensitive surrogate marker for liver cell damage, and the IT phase of HBV infection cannot be considered fully benign.2 Chu and Liaw3 have challenged this view because they speculated that the IT group in that study might include IA patients who were in remission state after experiencing unrecognised minimal ALT elevations. Apparently, the highly dynamic nature of ALT perturbation makes it inadequate to act as a predictor for HCC. We have developed and validated an easy-to-use scoring system for primary liver cancer (PLC) risk prediction. The development data set was set up in 1996 based on a community-based prospective cohort (qidong hepatitis B infection cohort (QBC)) established in Qidong, China.4 It contained …