EMPIRICAL REGULARITIES IN THE DIFFUSION OF INNOVATION

ABSTRACT Research on the diffusion of innovation has postulated three empirical regularities—the S-curve for diffusion in a temporal context, the neighborhood effect for diffusion in a spatial context, and the hierarchy or short circuit effect for diffusion in the context of a central place system. This paper reviews the evidence for each regularity, considers the consistency of each, and presents an explanation for these regularities taken together that appears more useful for future research than previously posited explanations. Our paradigm focuses upon 1) the distinction between innovation diffusion agencies and adopters themselves, 2) the relationship between the marketing surface viewed by diffusion agencies and the resistance surface offered by potential adopters, and 3) the sequence of communication systems associated with different stages of the diffusion process. By focusing upon behavioral aspects of diffusion rather than upon rigidly defined structural aspects, the consistency of each regularity with others, and deviations from a given regularity for a particular situation, may be reconciled with theory. The empirical regularities are but one possible outcome of behavioral events associated with diffusion of innovation, and in future diffusion research more attention should be given to behavioral events and their characteristics.