Forecasting seasonal dynamics of the Asiatic migratory locust using the Locusta migratoria migratoria — Phragmites australis forecasting system

Abstract Many species of grasshoppers and locusts cause economic damage in Kazakhstan. In 1992 the authors formulated a seasonal dynamics model, describing behaviour of the Asiatic migratory locust, Locusta migratoria migratoria. and the Phragmites australis system in the Balkhash-Alacol basin. This paper presents the computer model used in forecasting locust development stages, density, population trends, estimate of potential forage losses and production for L. m. migratoria. Such forecasting allows to decide when to spray and to optimise the date of application and size of target area and to minimise the environmental impact.