Integrating ecosystem services and ecological risks for urban ecological zoning: a case study of Wuhan City, China

AbstractThe global ecosystem is facing a severe situation, with increasing ecological risks threatening ecosystem protection. The research is conducted based on land use data and socio-economic data of Wuhan during the three periods of 2000, 2010, and 2020. Various models including the ecosystem service value model, ecosystem risk model, bivariate spatial autocorrelation model, and CA-Markov model are employed to calculate the spatial and temporal evolution as well as the correlation of ecosystem service values and ecological risks in Wuhan City over the past 20 years. Moreover, the study aims to predict the ecosystem service values and ecological risks for the year 2030 and establish an ecological zoning framework accordingly. The results show that: (1) The value of Wuhan’s ecosystem services show a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in the past 20 years. (2) The ecological risks of Wuhan show an overall upward trend, and the ecological risks in the study area are generally characterized by “high in the middle and low around”. (3) There is a significant positive spatial correlation between the value of ecosystem services and ecological risks in Wuhan. The overall ecological risk in the study area in 2030 is relatively alleviated compared with the previous two periods, and the ecological zones with a larger proportion are “low-low” and “low-high” zones. This study can provide critical information for building resilient cities.Keywords: urban ecologyCA-Markov modelspatial distributionrisk predictionresilient cities Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.