Multiple predictions during language comprehension: Friends, foes, or indifferent companions?

To comprehend language, we continually use prior context to pre-activate expected upcoming information, resulting in facilitated processing of incoming words that confirm these predictions. But what are the consequences of disconfirming prior predictions? To address this question, most previous studies have examined unpredictable words appearing in contexts that constrain strongly for a single continuation. However, during natural language processing, it is far more common to encounter contexts that constrain for multiple potential continuations, each with some probability. Here, we ask whether and how pre-activating both higher and lower probability alternatives influences the processing of the lower probability incoming word. One possibility is that, similar to language production, there is continuous pressure to select the higher-probability pre-activated alternative through competitive inhibition. During comprehension, this would result in relative costs in processing the lower probability target. A second possibility is that if the two pre-activated alternatives share semantic features, they mutually enhance each other's pre-activation. This would result in greater facilitation in processing the lower probability target. To distinguish between these accounts, we recorded ERPs as participants read three-sentence scenarios that constrained either for a single word or for two potential continuations - a higher probability expected candidate and a lower probability second-best candidate. We found no evidence that competitive pre-activation between the expected and second-best candidates resulted in costs in processing the second-best target, either during lexico-semantic processing (indexed by the N400) or at later stages of processing (indexed by a later frontal positivity). Instead, we found only benefits of pre-activating multiple alternatives, with evidence of enhanced graded facilitation on lower-probability targets that were semantically related to a higher-probability pre-activated alternative. These findings are consistent with a previous eye-tracking study by Luke and Christianson (2016, Cogn Psychol) using corpus-based materials. They have significant theoretical implications for models of predictive language processing, indicating that routine graded prediction in language comprehension does not operate through the same competitive mechanisms that are engaged in language production. Instead, our results align more closely with hierarchical probabilistic accounts of language comprehension, such as predictive coding.