Forecast and Analysis for Stock Market of the U.S, Canada, and Mexico based on Time Series Forecasting Models

Forecasting the stock market index has been an essential part of the investing process for the world’s investors, so predication for the composite stock market index of three different countries in North America were made for the investors to get references. The weekly data of three representative composite stock market index for each country from the past three months were chosen to generate the prediction for the next week’s performance of the stock market in each country through different time-series forecasting methods. The correlation between each index are calculated, indicating the short-term relationship between each country’s stock market. Three time-series predicting method is produced: SMA, WMA, and SES, one of the three methods with the least error by comparing the MSE and MAD would be selected for each stock index. Analyze the forecast results from the selected method for each country’s composite stock market index and compare them. The forecast results show that the composite stock market index for all three countries is going to decline in the following week. Several short-term relationships between different countries’ stock markets are revealed. The results and the discussion of this research tend to serve as a reference or an indicator for investors who have interests in multiple countries’ stock markets in the world.